General overview:
The weekly normal capacity for the FEWB trade lane to North Europe is approximately 330,000 TEUs. During January, there was a general reduction in capacity of around 15%, with most of the impact concentrated in Week 5.
In Week 1, capacity decreased by 11%, while Week 2 saw no change. Week 3 experienced a modest reduction of 5%, followed by a 9% decrease in Week 4, which was later adjusted to reflect an average reduction of 6%. The most significant drop occurring in Week 5, with a sharp decline of 49%, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday.
February will show a general capacity reduction of 17%, but there will be a slight improvement. In Week 6, capacity will drop by 40%, which coincides with post Chinese New Year. Week 7 will see a decline of 16%, offset by an increase of 10%. Week 8 will show only a 5% reduction, while Week 9 will experience a 10% reduction.
The Mediterranean’s weekly normal shipping capacity is about 189,000 TEUs. During January, blank sailings accounted for approximately 10-12% of the capacity. In Week 6, there was a significant cut of 44% coinciding with Chinese New Year, reflecting a sharp reduction in operational capacity for that specific period.
The first three weeks of January have shown very strong booking activity; however, a slowdown is anticipated starting from the fourth week due to the Chinese New Year factor. In preparation for this expected downturn, carriers have already planned blank sailings to mitigate the impact both during and after Chinese New Year. Currently, carriers are releasing space based on NAC agreements, but they have also begun releasing extra NAC space to build a roll pool for vessels operating post Chinese New Year until the third week.
From the fourth and fifth weeks onwards, it is expected that carriers will be more accommodating in releasing NAC space. Freight rates are likely to remain at similar levels until Chinese New Year. In weeks five and six, with significant capacity cuts in place, carriers will likely focus on managing vessel utilization effectively.
Substantial blank sailings are expected to continue until week 6, as carriers await forecasts for week seven. They remain flexible and prepared to adjust sailings further if demand does not show signs of improvement. Additionally, the Day 9 product under the OA service will be launched in April. Details on the updated service profile will be shared closer to the launch date.
The TPEB (Transpacific Eastbound) trade line is currently overbooked and rolling, with huge rollover pool for all vessels across all regions. For PSW (Pacific Southwest) capacity will be reduced over 50% on week 6 after Chinese New Year. PNW (Pacific Northwest) capacity will be reduced over 43% on week 6 after Chinese New Year. USEC (US East Coast) capacity will be reduced over 48% on week 6 after Chinese New Year.
Despite the anticipated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas set to commence on Sunday, there remains a significant risk of continued Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis have indicated that their cessation of hostilities is contingent upon the full implementation of the ceasefire. Given the group's history of over 100 attacks on ships since November 2023, the potential for further disruptions to ocean freight in the region persists. Shipping lines and stakeholders should remain vigilant and monitor developments closely, as the security situation in the Red Sea remains fluid and could impact shipping routes and schedules.
Wildfires in the Greater Los Angeles area, have caused significant destruction and widespread evacuations. While the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach remain operational and are outside the Red Flag Warning zones, transportation routes to and from these hubs have been affected. Road closures, power outages, and evacuations have disrupted local distribution networks, leading to potential delays in shipments. We will continue to monitor shipments arriving at or departing from Los Angeles/ Long Beach, advising customers of orders that may be adversely affected and we will share alternative freight solutions.
Overview by trade lane
FEWB summary:
Rate and capacity update as of January 17, 2025:
Oceania summary:
Rate and capacity update as of January 17, 2025:
Transpacific summary:
Rate and capacity update as of January 17, 2025:
Asia port updates
Market intel: Europe
- Ocean Alliance ‘Day 9’ product back to seven Far East - North Europe loop (Source: Alphaliner)
- Hapag-Lloyd offers West India to Far East connection
(Source: Alphaliner)
Market intel: Oceania
- Patrick Terminals
- Brisbane: Delays approx. 0.5 days
- Fremantle: Delays approx. 0.5 days
- Sydney: Delays approx. 3-4 days
- Melbourne: Delays approx. 0.5 days
- DP World Terminals
- Brisbane: Delays approx. 3 days
- Fremantle: Delays approx. 0.5 days
- Sydney: Delays approx. 0.5 days
- Melbourne: Delays approx. 1 day
- VICT
- Melbourne: Delays approx. 1.5 day
(Source: ANL)
Market intel: Americas
- Ocean Alliance Day 9 Product launched in April 2025. There will be 22 Transpacific services (including 14 West Coast North America services, 8 East Coast North America and U.S. Gulf services)
(Source: Ocean Alliance)
- 2025 TPEB carrier alliance service network overview:
Equipment update by carrier
Correct at time of publication on January 17, 2025. Please find attached below.
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