Weekly Air Operations Update: Asia to Europe, US and Australia 28/02/25

General overview:

Capacity on Australian routes remains extremely tight, and the air rates are rising. Meanwhile, export volumes on other routes are stable, with air rates remaining stable too.

Shanghai to London

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• CZ cancelled flight ex CAN to LHR on 2/26.
• Weather is normal
• Space is open
• Air rates are stable

Shanghai to New York

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• No flight cancellation
• Weather is normal
• Space is open
• Air rates are stable

Shanghai to Los Angeles

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• No flight cancellation
• Weather is normal
• Space is open
• Air rates are stable

Shanghai to Frankfurt

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• 3U cancelled flight ex CTU to FRA on 2/26.
• Weather is normal
• Space is open
• Air rates are stable

Shanghai to Melbourne

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• SQ cancelled the freighter flights ex PVG to SIN on 3/1+2.
• Weather is normal
• Space is very tight
• Air rates are increasing

Shanghai to Sydney

• Airport operations are currently normal
• Haulier service is normal
• SQ cancelled the freighter flights ex PVG to SIN on 3/1+2
• Weather is normal
• Space is very tight
• Air rates are  increasing

Market intel

China-US air cargo cost to fall as US duty-free ends.

The cost to fly goods to the United States from China is poised to fall as much as 50 per cent after US President Donald Trump cut off a key tariff exemption used by Chinese e-commerce giants including Temu and Shein, reports Singapore's Straits Times.

According to Freightos Group CEO Zvi Schreiber, the cancellation of a US Customs duty-free rule for small items will cause serious damage

The air cargo market between Asia and North America, said the head of a leading air freight booking platform, has been stretched for the past two years because of strong demand for Chinese e-commerce.

Now that the Trump administration has blocked a provision that allowed e-retailers to ship millions of small packages, he said, there will be downward pressure on rates.

Restrictions on Chinese e-commerce into the US looked to be widening further when the US Postal Service said it was suspending inbound package delivery from China and Hong Kong, but reversed itself the next day.

Since 2023, a surge in Chinese e-commerce demand helped drive up the cost of air freight between the world's largest economies to the highly elevated range of US$5 to $7 per kilo. The current rate is 5.09 - unchanged from last week, according to Freightos.

Based on the volume of parcels blocked by Trump's suspension of the so-called "de minimis" exemption for goods valued less than $800 from China and Hong Kong, those rates could slump back to $3.50 to $3.80 a kilo - the range just before the surge began, Freightos calculations showed.

"We could see that crashing right back down," said Mr Schreiber. "It could easily halve if all the e-commerce stops."